45th President Donald J. Trump (Photo Credit: Gage Skidmore)
This opinion article does not reflect the opinion of BUnow, and reflects only the opinion of the author
As the midterm elections inch closer and closer, people are already looking forward to 2024. Regardless of the outcome of the midterms, the presidential election will soon completely engulf the attention of both the media and public alike. However, one cannot reference the election without mentioning the possible republican nomination for President.
So, who will the Republicans nominate? Will it be 45th President Donald J. Trump, Florida Governor Ron DeSantis, former Secretary of State Mike Pompeo, or perhaps another candidate? A number of prominent conservatives believe DeSantis will not only receive the nomination, but they also believe he is the Republican’s only chance of winning.
Be that as it may, looking at polling data and other metrics, one finds the opposite to be true. Barring any legal consequences, it can be safely concluded and predicted that Trump will win the Republican nomination and vie for the presidency once more in 2024. No candidate can energize the base like he can, and this is evidenced by poll after poll revealing Trump maintaining a commanding lead over every other possible candidate. Additionally, Trump has become such a cult of personality that battling him for the nomination would be tantamount to political suicide. Not even the ever-popular DeSantis would attempt to rival Trump, and if he does, it will not end well for him.
Firstly, will Trump even run? After all, he has not announced his candidacy. While not official, it is all but certain. Trump told a reporter from the New York Magazine that he already made up his mind about whether to run or not. The former president has made some hints at what that decision could be. At one of his rallies in Corpus Christi, the former president made some not-so-subtle claims about a future run.
“In 2024, we are going to take back our beautiful White House. In order to make our country successful, safe, and glorious again, I will probably have to run again.”
So, it is very likely that Trump will try to run again. The next question would be to ask if he holds the support of the Republican party and its voters. According to a preponderance of polls, the answer is a resounding yes.
“In 2024, we are going to take back our beautiful White House. In order to make our country successful, safe, and glorious again, I will probably have to run again.”Donald Trump
Echelon Insights conducted two polls from October 24-26 where they asked registered and likely voters respectively if they would prefer President Trump or Governor DeSantis as the Republican nominee. Registered voters preferred Trump 60% to 32%, a 28-point differential. Likely voters preferred Trump 58% to 36%, a 22-point differential.
YouGov performed a poll from October 17-19 where they asked people for their preferred Republican candidate. Trump outperformed DeSantis 53% to 29%, a 24-point differential. Other candidates, like former Vice President Mike Pence and former UN Ambassador Nikki Haley, received 6% or less at the highest. YouGov conducted several more polls prior to this, all with the same result. Trump outranked every other candidate.
Siena College/New York Times Upshot, which FiveThirtyEight considers to be one of the best pollsters, conducted polls on this issue, as well. From October 9-12, Trump led by 19 points in one poll and 23 points in another. Cyngal polled over 1,200 likely voters from October 9-12 and found Trump led DeSantis 45% to 26%. US Presidential Election News found Trump at an average of 53.6% with DeSantis trailing at 24.6%.
The Conservative Political Action Committee, more commonly known as CPAC, performed a straw poll at their event. 18,000 people attended CPAC. Trump portrayed complete dominance over the Republican Party with 69% of the vote share. Many more polls, all portraying the same result, can be found here.
Journalist and news anchor Megyn Kelly stated DeSantis has no chance and cannot defeat Trump if the two were to contend for the nomination. Via his social media app, Truth Social, the 45th President seemed to agree with Kelly’s sentiments with two simple words: “I AGREE!” If polls are to be believed, Trump and Kelly are correct.
Nevertheless, Trump is under investigation for alleged crimes. How has this impacted his chances? According to many polls, this is either negligible or completely moot. While non-Republicans may not want Trump to run, nearly two-thirds of GOP voters would want him to run regardless of any possible crime committed. Other polls suggest this is the rule rather than the exception.
This is all well and good, but Trump will need more than Republican votes. Can he muster the votes of independents? Jen Psaki, former press secretary for President Joe Biden, revealed an extremely interesting poll via Twitter that speaks to this very topic.
“Holy moly Siena/NYT poll [found] ‘more than a third of independent voters and a smaller but noteworthy contingent of Democrats said they were open to supporting candidates who reject the legitimacy of the 2020 election…’”.
Psaki is by no means a Trump supporter, and as mentioned before, Siena/NYT is a very trustworthy poll. If such a large subset of independents, and Democrats to some degree, are willing to vote for a candidate that rejects the legitimacy of the 2020 election, that is incredibly favorable to President Trump, who is the most famous denier of the 2020 election. While this is only one poll and should be taken with a grain of salt, it suggests a dismal trend for the Democrat Party.
Voters may want Trump, but could he beat Biden in 2024? Once more, the polls favor the real estate mogul. A Washington Post-ABC News poll shows that most Democrats do not even want Biden to run for a second term. Only 35% support the current President, with 56% claiming someone should replace him for the Democratic ticket. Contrary to this, the survey found 47% of Republicans support Trump to run in 2024. That same poll asked registered voters to cast their prospective ballots, as well. Trump won 48% to 46%. A slim margin that can easily flip, but a terrible omen for the Biden administration. According to this same article, Siena/NYT found 64% of Democrats do not want Biden to run again.
“more than a third of independent voters and a smaller but noteworthy contingent of Democrats said they were open to supporting candidates who reject the legitimacy of the 2020 election.”Siena/NYT Poll
A Harvard CAPS-Harris survey found incredibly similar results. Trump led Biden 45% to 43%. Once more, two percentage points is nothing to boast over and cannot be used to draw substantive conclusions, but it suggests problems for Biden and only helps a seemingly more and more likely Trump 2024 candidacy. Vice President Kamala Harris performed even worse, with 49% of voters supporting Trump compared to 38% supporting Harris. 2% may be negligible, but 11% is more difficult to handwave.
An Emerson College poll also revealed Trump holds an 8-point lead over the current president in Iowa. As Iowa is a bellwether state, meaning it can accurately predict trends in other states and by extension a presidential winner, this is important.
According to Paddy Power, an Irish betting odds site, Trump has a 26.7% of winning compared to Biden’s 15.5%. Biden may claim he can defeat Trump in a 2024 rematch, but the current polls do not bode well for him.
Nevertheless, it is imperative to note that polls are just that: polls. They have been notoriously wrong in the 2014, 2016, and 2020 elections. While it can be fun to predict the future, it remains elusive regardless. However, opinion polling is still one of the best methods we can use to attempt to extrapolate electoral data. If it was completely useless, no one would do them. A careful balance must be found between completely disregarding every poll and trusting every poll with 100% certainty.
Thus, given he decides to run again, Donald J. Trump may very well enter the White House once more for another four-year term. The 45th President, who has already jokingly declared himself the 47th President, should not be ruled out due to the rise in popularity of DeSantis. There is a very real possibility for America to be made great again- again.